Penske Automotive Group (PAG):
Q1 2026 Pre-Earnings Channel Check
Investment funds, analysts, and institutional investors use channel checks to spot performance trends before earnings are reported. This edition is written in plain language – accessible to any reader, no automotive or finance background required. We use MarketCheck car sales and inventory data to provide an independent view of retail demand, used vehicle performance, and dealer operations ahead of Penske’s Q1 2026 earnings call on April 29.
April 15, 2026 / Dealer Group Earnings Preview / Reading Time 18 mins / Download as PDF
What this report covers
MarketCheck data on car sales and inventory at North American dealerships (new and used). What we cannot see: Penske’s service and repair business, finance and insurance income, U.K. and European dealerships (~35% of PAG revenue), Premier Truck Group (commercial trucks), Penske Transportation Solutions (trucking division), or wholesale transactions. Treat this as one useful piece of the puzzle, not the whole picture.
Jump to: Part 1 – Part 2 – Request Report
PART 1 — SUMMARY
North American Vehicle Transaction Signal
NEUTRAL – Confidence: MEDIUM
The good news and bad news roughly cancel out. New cars sold 4.8 days faster than a year ago, the Longo Toyota/Lexus acquisition added real volume, and used electric vehicle (EV) sales are picking up. But used car sales at existing stores are down about 6%, expensive luxury used cars are sitting on lots for 90–130+ days, and new EV sales dropped 41% year-over-year. Confidence is Medium — one data quality check returned a file too large to process cleanly.
Service business caveat: Penske’s service and repair business typically makes up 40–50% of a franchise dealer group’s profit, and we have no visibility into it. A strong or weak service business could shift the overall earnings picture by an entire tier above or below what our car-sales data alone suggests.
Revenue Estimate
Combined car sales revenue: approximately $3.40 billion in Q1 2026, up 4.6% from a year ago. Total units sold were essentially flat (−0.1%), meaning the revenue gain came from higher prices per car rather than more cars sold.
| Metric | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2025 | vs. Prior Quarter | vs. Year Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New cars sold (all stores) | 44,211 | 46,359 | 42,589 | −4.6% | +3.8% |
| New car revenue | $2,410.7M | $2,473.7M | $2,270.1M | −2.5% | +6.2% |
| Avg new car price | $54,926 | $54,079 | $53,886 | +1.6% | +1.9% |
| New car days to sell | 53.1d | 50.3d | 57.9d | +2.8d (slower) | −4.8d (faster) ✓ |
| Discount vs. sticker price | −1.05% | −1.12% | −0.85% | Smaller discount | Slightly more discount |
| New same-store only | 43,345 | — | 41,615 | — | +4.2% (Longo-driven) |
| Used cars sold (all stores) | 31,551 | 32,165 | 33,264 | −1.9% | −5.1% |
| Used car revenue | $990.4M | $1,006.1M | $981.2M | −1.6% | +0.9% |
| Avg used car price | $34,923 | $35,595 | $33,649 | −1.9% | +3.8% |
| Used car days to sell | 42.0d | 43.0d | 38.4d | −1.0d | +3.6d (slower) |
| Same-store used only | ~30,136 | — | ~32,175 | — | −6.3% |
| TOTAL revenue | $3,401.1M | $3,479.8M | $3,251.3M | −2.3% | +4.6% |
Why same-store matters: When a company buys new dealerships, the extra sales from those locations can make the headline numbers look better than what is actually happening at existing stores. “Same-store” strips that out. Penske’s Longo Toyota/Lexus acquisition added over 5,000 cars to the year-over-year comparison from a single zip code in El Monte, CA. Our same-store calculation uses zip codes as a proxy — an approximation, not Penske’s certified count.
Six Signals at a Glance
| What We’re Measuring | Signal | Plain-English Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Prediction | Neutral | Revenue up 4.6%, but almost all the gain came from the Longo acquisition. At existing stores, new was roughly flat and used was down 6%. |
| Inventory Management | Cautiously Good | About 59.5 days of new cars and 43 days of used cars in stock — both in the healthy range. Car-on-order pipeline is normal at ~31%. |
| Profit Squeeze Risk | Cautiously Concerning | Used cars taking 3.6 more days to sell. BMW, Mercedes, Porsche sitting 90–130+ days. Price gap is large but mostly a luxury mix issue, not a markdown crisis. |
| Pricing Power | Neutral | Selling at about 1% below sticker — small, normal discount. No major movement year-over-year. |
| EV Sales | Mixed | New EV sales down 41%. Used EV sales up 8.7% and selling faster. Opposite directions. |
| Checking Prior Guidance | Mixed | Two of four management statements confirmed; two partially supported. |
The Positive Case
The strongest positive signal is that new cars sold nearly 5 days faster than a year ago (seen in our data). Across almost 44,000 cars and $2.4 billion in revenue, that is a meaningful sign of healthy demand. New car inventory (59.5 days of supply) is right in the sweet spot — not too much, not too little.
The Longo Toyota/Lexus acquisition is the second positive thread. Toyota new sales were up 22.9% and Lexus up 77.4% (seen in our data), consistent with management’s projection of $2 billion in annualized revenue from recent acquisitions (management’s own guidance). Used EV sales rose 8.7% with cars selling 4.5 days faster — tentative confirmation that more used EVs are coming off lease as predicted.
The Negative Case
Same-store used car sales fell about 6.3% year-over-year (seen in our data — zip-code approximation), noticeably worse than the 1% decline Penske reported for Q4 2025. Used cars are also taking 3.6 more days to sell. BMW used cars average 113 days on the lot, Mercedes 106 days, Porsche 132 days — roughly half the used inventory by count is luxury brands with slow turnover.
New EV sales dropped 41% (seen in our data). Our best guess: the EV tax credit expiring in late 2025 pulled buyers forward into 2025, inflating last year’s comparison number. But there may also be genuine demand softness at Penske’s premium EV franchises — we cannot confirm which from transaction data alone (educated guess).
PART 2 — FULL ANALYSIS
Section 1 — Overall Verdict and Confidence
North American Vehicle Transaction Signal
NEUTRAL – Confidence: MEDIUM
The signals pointing up and the signals pointing down roughly cancel each other out. Neither side has a clear majority — hence Neutral. Confidence is Medium rather than High because one automated data quality check returned a file too large to process cleanly. That is an honest limitation, not a red flag on the underlying data.
Section 2 — Signal Summary Table
All signals cover car sales and inventory only. We cannot see Penske’s service revenue, finance income, international operations, or trucking business.
| What We’re Measuring | Signal | What the Data Shows | Section |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Prediction | Neutral | Combined revenue +4.6% YoY on flat unit volume. Same-store new roughly flat (Longo-driven); same-store used −6.3%. | 3, 4 |
| Inventory Management | Cautiously Good | 59.5 days of new cars and 43 days of used cars in stock at current sales pace. Car-on-order pipeline (31% of new) is normal. | 7 |
| Profit Squeeze Risk | Cautiously Concerning | Used cars taking 3.6 more days to sell. Luxury cars sitting 90–130+ days. Price gap between listed and sold is large but reflects luxury mix — not confirmed markdown pressure. | 6, 7 |
| Pricing Power | Neutral | Selling price vs. sticker essentially unchanged — small discount, no major movement. | 3, 4 |
| EV Sales | Mixed | New EV sales down 41%. Used EV sales up 8.7% and selling faster. Opposite directions. | 8 |
| Checking Prior Guidance | Mixed | Q4 2025 same-store used guidance not tracking; acquisition revenue tracking well; EV lease return tentatively tracking on EVs only. | 11A |
Section 3 — Detailed Sales Numbers
New Cars
Penske sold 44,211 new cars in Q1 2026 (seen in our data), up 3.8% from a year ago but down 4.6% from last quarter. The year-over-year gain looks solid, but a large chunk came from the Longo Toyota/Lexus acquisition in California. One zip code in El Monte, CA went from 192 cars sold in Q1 2025 to 5,394 in Q1 2026 (confirmed by Penske management on their Q4 2025 call). Strip out Longo, and same-store new car sales are probably in the mid-to-high-single-digit negative range — consistent with Penske’s own Q4 2025 figure of −6%.
| New Car Metric | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2025 | vs. Prior Qtr | vs. Year Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total cars sold | 44,211 | 46,359 | 42,589 | −4.6% | +3.8% |
| Revenue | $2,410.7M | $2,473.7M | $2,270.1M | −2.5% | +6.2% |
| Avg selling price | $54,926 | $54,079 | $53,886 | +1.6% | +1.9% |
| Days to sell (avg) | 53.1d | 50.3d | 57.9d | +2.8d | −4.8d (faster) |
| Discount vs. sticker | −1.05% | −1.12% | −0.85% | Smaller discount | Slightly more discount |
| Same-store only | 43,345 | — | 41,615 | — | +4.2% (Longo-driven) |
Used Cars
Penske sold 31,551 used cars in Q1 2026 (seen in our data), down 5.1% from a year ago. At existing stores only, the decline was about 6.3% — noticeably worse than the 1% decline Penske reported for Q4 2025. The trend is heading the wrong direction. Average used car prices were up 3.8% year-over-year at $34,923, but cars are taking 3.6 more days to sell than a year ago.
| Used Car Metric | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2025 | vs. Prior Qtr | vs. Year Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total cars sold | 31,551 | 32,165 | 33,264 | −1.9% | −5.1% |
| Revenue | $990.4M | $1,006.1M | $981.2M | −1.6% | +0.9% |
| Avg selling price | $34,923 | $35,595 | $33,649 | −1.9% | +3.8% |
| Days to sell (avg) | 42.0d | 43.0d | 38.4d | −1.0d | +3.6d (slower) |
| Same-store only | ~30,136 | — | ~32,175 | — | −6.3% |
Section 4 — Top Car Brands Sold
New Cars — Q1 2026
Toyota and Lexus are up sharply — that is the Longo acquisition. German brands (BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Porsche, MINI, VW) are selling slowly and declining year-over-year in most cases. Honda, Chevrolet, and Acura also fell notably.
| Brand | Units Sold | Avg Price | Days to Sell | vs. Year Ago | Discount vs. Sticker |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota | 18,936 | $42,498 | 33 days | +22.9% | −0.99% |
| BMW | 5,677 | $77,003 | 74 days | −4.5% | At sticker |
| Honda | 4,964 | $38,632 | 54 days | −16.4% | −1.71% |
| Lexus | 4,280 | $63,019 | 34 days | +77.4% | −0.99% |
| Mercedes-Benz | 2,019 | $80,711 | 84 days | −13.8% | At sticker |
| Audi | ~1,200 | ~$66,000 | ~75 days | ~−10% | ~flat |
| Porsche | ~950 | ~$112,000 | ~90 days | ~flat | ~flat |
| Land Rover | ~800 | ~$95,000 | ~90 days | ~−15% | −1 to −2% |
| MINI | 566 | $42,365 | 142 days | −11.4% | At sticker |
| Chevrolet | 545 | $50,069 | 78 days | −23.1% | −5.28% |
| Volkswagen | 213 | $38,588 | 119 days | −36.0% | −6.80% |
Used Cars — Q1 2026
Toyota and Honda lead in volume and sell fast. Luxury brands (BMW, Mercedes, Land Rover, Porsche) have the most inventory aging — sitting 60–75+ days on average. About 47% of Penske’s used car inventory by count is luxury brands, creating a natural tension between premium mix and turnover speed.
| Brand | Units Sold | Avg Price | Days to Sell | vs. Year Ago | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota | 6,488 | $28,853 | 28 days | +3.2% | Fast-turning |
| BMW | 4,582 | $44,859 | 63 days | −4.2% | Slow, aging |
| Honda | 3,390 | $25,021 | 28 days | −1.8% | Fast-turning |
| Mercedes-Benz | 1,984 | $44,815 | 65 days | −17.7% | Slow and declining |
| Audi | 1,734 | $33,972 | 52 days | −1.3% | Mildly slow |
| Land Rover | ~1,000 | ~$58,000 | ~80 days | ~−4% | Slow |
| Porsche | 918 | $96,076 | 75 days | −12.8% | Slow and declining |
| Volkswagen | 545 | $21,569 | 34 days | −9.8% | Declining but fast |
| MINI | 539 | $25,772 | 67 days | +7.6% | Slow |
| Acura | 533 | $30,294 | 39 days | −20.6% | Declining |
Section 5 — What’s on the Lots Right Now
Live inventory snapshot as of April 15, 2026 (MarketCheck live data feed).
| Category | Units on Hand | Avg Listed Price | Avg Days Listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New cars (total) | 29,217 | $59,681 | 50 days | — |
| Already at the lot | 20,212 (69.2%) | — | — | Available now |
| Ordered, not yet arrived | 9,005 (30.8%) | — | — | Normal pipeline level |
| Used cars (total) | 15,079 | $47,032 | 75 days | High avg driven by luxury mix |
Which used car brands are sitting the longest?
| Brand | Units on Lot | Avg Listed Price | Days Listed | Concern Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMW | 1,574 | $53,273 | 113 days | High — over 3 months on average |
| Toyota | 1,228 | $32,764 | 32 days | None — selling fast |
| Honda | 741 | $29,522 | 34 days | None — selling fast |
| Mercedes-Benz | 684 | $52,421 | 106 days | High — over 3 months |
| Porsche | 459 | $111,600 | 132 days | Highest — over 4 months |
| Audi | 353 | $40,949 | 89 days | Elevated |
Section 6 — The Gap Between Listed Prices and Selling Prices
| Type | Avg Listed Price | Avg Selling Price (Q1 2026) | Gap | What It Means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New cars | $59,681 | $54,926 | +5.4% | Normal — within expected range |
| Used cars | $46,109–$47,032 | $34,923 | +32% | Looks large — see explanation below |
Why the 32% gap is probably not a markdown crisis: Penske has a lot of expensive BMW, Mercedes, and Porsche inventory listed at $50,000–$112,000. Meanwhile, the cars that actually sold this quarter skewed heavily toward affordable Toyotas and Hondas ($25,000–$29,000 average). When you average those two very different groups together, you get a large gap — but it reflects the mix composition, not proof that Penske is being forced to slash prices. We flag it as something to watch, not a conclusion. (Our interpretation — not confirmed fact.)
Section 7 — Inventory Levels (How Many Days of Cars in Stock)
How quickly are cars actually selling?
| Type | Q1 2026 (sold) | Q4 2025 (sold) | Q1 2025 (sold) | Currently listed | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New cars | 53.1 days | 50.3 days | 57.9 days | 50.1 days | Selling faster than last year ✓ |
| Used cars | 42.0 days | 43.0 days | 38.4 days | 75.1 days | Selling slower than last year |
Days of supply (how full is the lot?)
Healthy range: roughly 45–65 days for new cars, 35–55 days for used.
| Type | Days of Supply | Healthy Range | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| New cars | 59.5 days | 45–65 days | Inside healthy range — no stress |
| Used cars | 43.0 days | 35–55 days | Inside healthy range |
Section 8 — Electric Vehicle (EV) Sales
New EV sales — big drop
Penske sold 2,483 new EVs in Q1 2026, down 40.9% from a year ago (seen in our data). The EV share of new car sales fell from 9.9% to 5.6%. Our best guess: the federal EV tax credit expired in September 2025, which pulled buyers forward into 2025 — making the Q1 2025 comparison artificially high. Penske’s management made a similar attribution on the Q4 2025 call. (This is our interpretation and management’s framing — not a hard fact from transaction data.)
| New EV Metric | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2025 | vs. Prior Qtr | vs. Year Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Units sold | 2,483 | 1,964 | 4,203 | +26.4% | −40.9% |
| Share of all new cars | 5.6% | 4.2% | 9.9% | +1.4 ppts | −4.3 ppts |
| Avg selling price | $76,501 | $86,289 | $77,563 | −$9,788 | −$1,062 |
| Days to sell | 68.3 days | 65.7 days | 79.5 days | +2.6 days | −11.2 days (faster) |
Used EV sales — improving
Penske sold 2,021 used EVs in Q1 2026, up 8.7% from a year ago and selling 4.5 days faster (seen in our data). This is consistent with the expectation that more used EVs would come off lease in 2026 — something Penske’s management predicted on the Q4 2025 call (management’s own guidance, tentatively supported by our data).
| Used EV Metric | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2025 | vs. Prior Qtr | vs. Year Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Units sold | 2,021 | 1,840 | 1,860 | +9.8% | +8.7% |
| Share of all used cars | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | +0.7 ppts | +0.8 ppts |
| Avg selling price | $43,570 | $46,567 | $42,243 | −$2,997 | +$1,327 |
| Days to sell | 41.8 days | 43.5 days | 46.3 days | −1.7 days | −4.5 days (faster) |
Section 9 — The Positive Case
The strongest positive signal is that new cars sold nearly 5 days faster than a year ago (seen in our data). Across almost 44,000 cars and $2.4 billion in revenue, that is a meaningful improvement in demand velocity. New car inventory (59.5 days of supply) is right in the sweet spot, and pricing discipline is holding — new cars are selling at just 1% below sticker on average.
The Longo acquisition is the second positive thread. Toyota new sales up 22.9% and Lexus up 77.4% (seen in our data) confirm the acquisition is delivering — one California zip code grew from 192 to 5,394 cars sold year-over-year. Penske projected $2 billion in annualized revenue from recent acquisitions (management’s own guidance); the Q1 data is consistent with that expectation. Toyota and Lexus also happen to be among the fastest-selling brands on the lot, improving Penske’s overall selling-speed metrics.
The third positive signal is used EV sales: up 8.7% year-over-year with cars selling 4.5 days faster (seen in our data). This is the first tentative data confirmation that EV lease returns are recovering as management predicted.
Section 10 — The Negative Case
The most concerning signal is same-store used car sales down about 6.3% year-over-year (seen in our data — zip-code approximation, not Penske’s certified count). That is noticeably worse than the 1% decline Penske reported for Q4 2025. Combined with used cars taking 3.6 more days to sell than a year ago, the used car side of the business looks soft. We cannot directly see Penske’s profit per used car sold — but historically, when cars take longer to sell, per-unit profit tends to compress.
The second concern is expensive luxury cars sitting on the lot for a long time. BMW used cars average 113 days listed, Mercedes 106 days, Porsche 132 days (seen in our data). These brands represent almost half of Penske’s used car inventory by count. The 32% gap between listed and selling prices is a flag to watch, not a confirmed loss — see Section 6.
The third concern is new EV sales — down 41% year-over-year (seen in our data). We believe some of this reflects buyers rushing to buy EVs before the tax credit expired, which inflated last year’s comparison number. But there may also be genuine demand softness at Penske’s premium EV franchises. Whether this is a temporary blip or a structural shift is genuinely unclear (our educated guess — we cannot confirm causation from sales data alone).
Section 11A — Did Management Get It Right Last Quarter?
Source: Penske Q4 2025 earnings transcript, February 11, 2026.
| What Penske Said (Feb 2026) | What Our Data Shows | Verdict | Explanation |
|---|---|---|---|
| “U.S. same-store new down 6%, used down 1% in Q4 2025” | Q1 same-store new +4.2% (Longo-driven); ex-Longo mid-to-high single-digit negative. Same-store used: −6.3% | Mixed | New trend consistent once you remove Longo. Used car trend is worse in Q1 than Q4 guidance suggested. |
| “Lease returns expected to improve in 2026” | Used EV sales +8.7%, selling faster. Overall same-store used still −6.3% | Partially confirmed | The EV-specific channel shows improvement. The broader used business has not recovered yet. |
| “U.S. used inventory at 34 days supply at year-end 2025” | Our live data shows 43 days as of April 15, 2026 | Consistent | Different measurement point and method; both figures are in the healthy range. No conflict. |
| “Acquired two Toyota, two Lexus dealerships; expecting $2B annualized revenue” | Toyota new +22.9%, Lexus +77.4%. One CA zip went from 192 to 5,394 cars sold year-over-year. | Confirmed | Volume surge shows up clearly in our data. Consistent with $2B revenue guidance. |
Section 11B — Five Questions for the Earnings Call
- Same-store used car sales: Our data shows a 6.3% decline at existing stores — much worse than the 1% in Q4 2025. Does management confirm or push back on that? What changed?
- Luxury used car profitability: BMW and Mercedes used cars are sitting 100+ days on average. What does management say about profitability on luxury used inventory? Any write-downs or markdowns?
- Longo acquisition — actual revenue: The data confirms the volume is there. What is the actual quarterly revenue from acquired stores, and are there one-time integration costs flowing through overhead?
- New EV sales — supply problem or demand problem? New EV volume dropped 41%. Does management say this is because the brands sent fewer cars (supply constraint) or because customers stopped buying (demand issue)? The answer matters for the rest of the year.
- Lease return recovery — how broad is it? We see improved used EV selling. Does management say the recovery is happening across all luxury used, or just in EVs?
Section 12 — Methodology and Glossary
Where the data comes from
Primary data source: MarketCheck’s MC Compass database, tracking car sales and inventory at North American dealerships. We pulled quarterly sales data for Q1 2026 (January–March 2026), Q4 2025 (October–December 2025), and Q1 2025 (January–March 2025), plus a live inventory snapshot from April 15, 2026.
Important data limitation: Our MC Compass database captures approximately 55–60% of Penske’s actual U.S. inventory. Because of that partial coverage, days-of-supply numbers computed directly from the database are unreliable for PAG — we use our live data feed for that metric instead. All other metrics (sold volume, prices, days to sell) use the full MC Compass database.
What Penske has that we cannot see
| Business Area | What Penske Reported (Q4 2025) | Why We Can’t Cover It |
|---|---|---|
| Service and repairs | Same-store service revenue +6%; service profit +5.5%; “fixed absorption” at 89.6% | Service lane activity doesn’t appear in vehicle transaction data |
| Finance and insurance | Significant contribution per car sold; not separately disclosed | We don’t have data on financing deals or add-on products |
| Penske International (U.K., Australia) | $2.8B quarterly revenue; ~35% of PAG total | Our data covers North America only |
| Premier Truck Group (commercial trucks) | $725M revenue, $121M gross profit | Commercial trucks are a different product category |
| Penske Transportation Solutions | $48M equity income | Separate logistics business, not automotive retail |
| Wholesale and auction transactions | Not tracked | Not systematically captured in our database |
Plain-English Glossary
| Term | What It Means |
|---|---|
| ATP (Avg Transaction Price) | The average price a car actually sells for |
| Days on Market (DOM) / Days to Sell | How long the average car took to sell from listing to sale |
| Days Supply | At the current sales pace, how many days until the lot would run empty if no new inventory arrived |
| EV (Electric Vehicle) | Battery-powered car with no gasoline engine |
| GPU (Gross Profit per Unit) | How much profit the dealer made per car sold, before overhead expenses |
| In-transit inventory | Cars ordered from the manufacturer but not yet arrived at the lot |
| MSRP (Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price) | The “sticker price” on the car window |
| QoQ (Quarter-over-Quarter) | Comparing this quarter to the previous quarter |
| Same-store sales | A comparison that strips out newly acquired stores, comparing only stores open in both periods |
| YoY (Year-over-Year) | Comparing this quarter to the same quarter last year |
| (seen in our data) | A fact we can directly observe in our database — high confidence |
| (our interpretation) | A conclusion we drew from the data — reasonable but not certain |
| (management-stated) | Something Penske’s executives said publicly |
| (educated guess) | A plausible explanation that fits the data, but we cannot confirm it |
Report prepared by MarketCheck | Publish date: April 15, 2026 | For internal research and informational purposes only; does not constitute investment advice.
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